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Travel Models and Forecasts

The region’s travel demand forecasting (TDF) model is used to predict how travel patterns will change in the future and what mode (transit or automobile) will be used to complete these trips in Hampton Roads.  The TDF model is used in a variety of ways:  air quality conformity, project prioritization, analysis of candidates for the Regional Transportation Plan, support for the Congestion Management System, individual project studies, and as-needed data requests. 

The Virginia Department of Transportation and their consultants updated the regional TDF in 2020.  This updated model has the ability to forecast travel demand, including truck trips, by time of day; additionally, the updated model has an expanded model area to include the City of Franklin and Southampton County, updated TAZ boundaries, network improvements, updated Non-Home-Based trip methodology, updated transit, mode choice, and toll components, and the ability to apply exploratory planning to investigate potential impacts of connected and automated vehicles on the transportation network.  These improvements can better replicate existing travel conditions and improves the level of detail and accuracy for forecasting.

Reports and information relevant to the Hampton Roads travel demand forecasting model:

Socioeconomic Data

  • Hampton Roads 2000 Transportation Analysis Zones (TAZ) Maps (T01-07)  (zip file)
  • Hampton Roads 2009 Socioeconomic Data by TAZ (T10-08) (PDF) (Excel)
  • Hampton Roads 2009 and 2040 Socioeconomic Data by TAZ (PDF) (Excel)
  • Hampton Roads 2015 Transportation Socioeconomic Data by Transportation Analysis Zone (PDF) (Excel)
  • Hampton Roads 2015 and 2045 Socioeconomic Data by TAZ (PDF) (Excel)
  • Hampton Roads 2015-2045 Socioeconomic Interim Year Data (Excel)

2020 Model Validation (HRTPO Model, V2)

  • 2020 Hampton Roads Model v2 User’s Guide (PDF
  • 2020 Hampton Roads Model v2 Methodology Report (PDF)

2009 Model Validation (HRTPO Model, V1)

  • 2009 Hampton Roads Model User’s Guide (PDF
  • 2009 Hampton Roads Model Methodology Report (PDF)
  • 2009 Hampton Roads Model Revision 1.1 Release Notes (PDF)

Software CUBE

[Software available from Citilabs (www.citilabs.com)]

Basic Model Information

  • Most recent model calibration year:  2015
  • Most recent model validation year: 2017
  • Most recent forecast year: 2045
  • Model covers MPO study area boundary:

Chesapeake, Franklin, Isle of Wight Co., Norfolk, Portsmouth, Southampton Co., Suffolk, Virginia Beach, Gloucester, Hampton, James City Co., Newport News, Poquoson, Williamsburg, York Co.

Shape Files

Other relevant links

Resources