Scenario planning provides a framework for stakeholders to make decisions that help achieve a shared vision for the future by analyzing various factors that can impact the way in which a region develops.  In transportation planning, scenario planning can be utilized to consider how changes in transportation, land use, demographics, or other factors such as climate change could affect connectivity, mobility, resiliency, and communities across the region. 

In November 2016, HRTPO staff hosted a Scenario Planning Workshop to exchange best practices and perspectives with regional stakeholders and national peers.  Using lessons learned from the workshop, concepts from VTrans 2040, and HRTPO committee/subcommittee engagement, HRTPO staff has been diligently taking steps to incorporate scenario planning into the development of the 2045 Long-Range Transportation Plan (LRTP).

Another regional effort, the Regional Connectors Study (RCS), is also implementing scenario planning, spring boarding off the work done by the LRTP Subcommittee and HRTPO staff, with a much more robust scope incorporating land use allocation and economic models that can interact with the regional travel demand model.  Because both the 2045 LRTP and RCS are regional efforts with a 2045 planning horizon, scenario planning between the two efforts will be coordinated.

Scenario Planning Efforts to date

The scenario planning effort of the 2045 LRTP and the RCS will investigate plausible alternate futures and their potential impacts on the transportation system.  In addition to developing the 2045 baseline scenario, three additional future scenarios are being developed through our collaborative regional stakeholder process.  Candidate transportation projects will be evaluated through each of the alternative scenarios in an effort to identify those projects that provide the most benefit to the region regardless of which future assumption is analyzed thereby highlighting smart investments for Hampton Roads. 

On July 18, 2019, the HRTPO Board approved the Regional Scenario Planning Framework to be used in the development of the 2045 LRTP.  This framework includes the identification of Regional Place Types, Scenario Narratives, and Control Totals for Additional 2045 Growth.

In support of this effort, several webinars describing the methodology for establishing the framework, assumptions, and data tools that will be used to conduct scenario planning have been presented.

Webinar 1 (February 14, 2019)

• Webinar 1 Recording (opens YouTube to play recording)
• Webinar 1 Slides (base data, place types, economic objectives, framework for scenario development)

Webinar 2 (March 15, 2019)

• Webinar 2 Recording (opens YouTube to play recording)
• Webinar 2 Slides (land use components, place types development, economic objectives, scenario drivers and trends)

Webinar 3 (March 27, 2019)

• Webinar 3 Recording (opens YouTube to play recording)
• Webinar 3 Slides (scenario drivers, economic components, growth forecasts and rates, economic narratives)

Webinar 4 (April 11, 2019)

• Webinar 4 Recording (opens YouTube to play recording)
• Webinar 4 Slides (Greater Growth place types, suitability factors, linkages between place types and economic drivers)

Webinar 5 (May 2, 2019)

• Webinar 5 Recording (opens YouTube to play recording)
• Webinar 5 Slides (goals, objectives, performance measures, scenario port narratives)

Webinar 6

• Webinar 6 Recording (opens YouTube to play recording)
• Webinar 6 Slides (summary of input from May 21 workshop, Greater Growth employment level, updated draft scenario narratives, scenario drivers, model levers)

Webinar 7

• Webinar 7 Recording (opens YouTube to play recording)
• Webinar 7 Slides (suitability factors and data needs)

Webinar 8

• Webinar 8 Recording (opens YouTube to play recording)
• Webinar 8 Slides (travel demand modeling technology considerations and brief land use model update)