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Long-Range Transportation Revenue Forecast Revised

Long-Range Transportation Revenue Forecast Revised

Since 2012, HRTPO staff has been working with stakeholders and citizens from across Hampton Roads to update the Long-Range Transportation Plan (LRTP) to the horizon year of 2040.  The LRTP is the regional transportation blueprint, planning infrastructure investment for the next 20 years.  In order to incorporate current conditions, the LRTP is updated every four to five years to account for changes in travel demand, population, employment, and the economy.  

On October 30, 2015, HRTPO staff received from VDOT a revised transportation revenue forecast for the 2040 LRTP.  Prior to the revision, forecasted revenue anticipated for the Hampton Roads region for the next 20 years was projected to be approximately $24 billion.  Of this forecast, $12 billion was slated to be spent on the maintenance of the existing transportation network, $8 billion on the Regional Priority Projects identified for funding by the Hampton Roads Transportation Accountability Commission (HRTAC), and $4.2 on other regionally-significant transportation projects across Hampton Roads.  After re-examining the impact of lower gas prices, more fuel-efficient vehicles, the projection of decreased fuel consumption, along with the new funding allocation process established by the Virginia General Assembly through House Bill 1887, the LRTP transportation revenue forecast was revised to reflect these changing conditions. 

Taking into account these factors, the revised transportation revenue forecast for the region over the next 20 years is projected to be $21 billion, with $12 billion being reserved for maintenance of the existing transportation network, $6 billion for the Regional Priority Projects (down $2 billion from previous forecast) and $3 billion for other regionally-significant transportation projects (down $1.2 billion from previous forecast).  With this revised forecast, HRTPO staff will continue to work with stakeholders to modify the draft list of transportation projects previously identified for the 2040 LRTP.  HRTPO staff anticipates having an updated draft list of projects by Spring of 2016 – once the draft list of projects is approved by the HRTPO Board, the draft list will be distributed to HRTPO advisory committees and the general public for review and feedback.

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